Problem: Current State Assessment Negative
Problem: "Assessment negative in PHASE 3, cannot proceed"
Severity: High
Impact: Return to PHASE 1 required
What Happened?
PHASE 3 Assessment:
├─ SWOT analyzed
├─ BSC defined
└─ Gap assessment: "UNREALISTIC" ❌
Result: Cannot proceed to PHASE 4
Action: Return to PHASE 1, revise vision
Negative Assessment Reasons
| Reason | Indicator |
|---|---|
| Gap too large | 10x growth needed in 3 years (impossible) |
| Market conditions | Market declining, not growing |
| Resource insufficient | Despite PHASE 2 approval, not enough |
| Competitive threat | New competitors block strategy |
| Technology risk | Implementation not feasible |
Recovery (PHASE 1 Revision)
1. Analyze Why Negative
- What was found in SWOT? Weaknesses or threats?
- How large is the Gap?
- Does market research support it?
2. Revise Vision
Options:
A) Reduce target
Vision: 100M → 60M revenue (vs 25M current)
Timeline: 3 years → 5 years
B) Pivot strategy
Focus: New market instead of current
C) Phased approach
PHASE 4 (Year 1): Core product
PHASE 1 (Year 2): Expansion
3. Repeat PHASE 2 & 3
PHASE 1 (revised) → PHASE 2 (new resources) → PHASE 3 (new assessment)
Prevention
✅ During planning:
- Reality-check (not overconfident)
- Finance + market research input
- Conservative estimates
- Scenario planning